How is the GDP/Gross Domestic Product outcome going to affect mortgage rates?

The news had the reports front and center about the recent GDP/Gross Domestic Product outcome, and many I'm sure are wondering, "how will this change the mortgage rate market in the short term?"
Here's the skinny on it.
Economists expected the growth to fall by 5.4 percent, but it only fell by 3.8 percent. Talking to my mentor and partner in business, he said it just right when trying to express this in layman's terms. He said,

"imagine that economists expected a 'category 5 hurricane, but we got a category 3'".

What it means is, the fall in growth still means we are not making our way back into the thriving economy yet, but the good news is that we are not as bad off as we thought. Unfortunately, since we fell less than the economist projected, it didn't maximize the amount of positive affect we could have had on lowering interest rates.
Define GDP/Gross Domestic Product- this measures consumption and spending inside the United States

Today's Expectations of Interest Rate and Fed's Next Move

First, what are the expectations of the Fed's next move on Prime Rate?
Today around 1:15, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is meeting and the results are to help estimate their next position on adjusting the Prime Rate. Chances are, there won't be much to expect and the disclosure of information won't REALLY say much to make heads or tails of a right hike.

Moving.com said today, "Tomorrow morning brings us the release of December's Durable Goods Orders. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years. The data often is quite volatile from month to month, but is currently expected to show a decline in orders of 2.0%. A larger than expected drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates." If you decide to follow this, you could Google the terms "December Durable Goods" and see if the decline is more than 2.0%. If it is, that could be could news for rates. If it's not, it should affect rates for the worse by much if at all unless it is much better than expected.

What to expect in mortgage interest rates by end of this week in relation to the stocks and bonds and economic reports...Lastly this week, the December New Home Sales Report is to be out, but it should have a major affect on rates either. On the other hand, if it IS worse than expected, that would couple with the rest of this weeks reports and hopefully more next week to continue building momentum for a bettering mortgage rate market.

Are you trying to decide to lock your loan or not?All signs right now would say to float, or hold off on locking and see what the end of the week brings. If you are finding a benefit in a refinance right now, my advice is to lock Friday or Monday assuming rates are worsened too badly by then and therefore cultivate your gains.

Brad's Client For Life Testimonials

Notice: For Privacy reason, last names are not used in these testimonials...

I have been in the mortgage business for 30 years and have worked with a lot of Loan Officers. Brad has been one of the best I have worked with. He is honest, caring, knowledgeable and goes above and beyond for his client. If someone asked me for a referral for a good loan officer, I would refer them to Brad. He is the best!

Thanks, Mary


Hi Brad,

Thanks for all your help in getting into a new home back in 2004, now that I've finally had a chance to educate myself on the finer points of mortgages and all of the various combinations, I'm so glad I worked with you to help me get through these otherwise confusing details. You helped me avoid a few pitfalls that would have cost me more in the long run, and I'm well on my way to owning my own place. Thanks for your honest, straight forward approach and best wishes for the future!

Chris

Brad Lynch at Service First Mortgage got me a great low rate on my investment property refinance. He is very professional and knowledgable of the mortgage industry. I felt comfortable working with him and giving him complete control of my refinance process. I will use Brad in the future for any of my home or business mortgage needs.
November 07, 2007 by Scott in Azle, TX

Brad Lynch at Service First Mortgage is a real pleasure to work with. He is confident in his ability to get you the very best mortgage loan for your situation at the very best interest rate possible. I highly recommend them.

October 25, 2007 by Infinite Prosperity Group, LLC

Ken - Brad is a very sharp mortgage professional. He knows what is going on in the industry and will help you make an informed decision about the right loan for you.
Dear Brad,

I've written this recommendation of your work to share with other LinkedIn users.

Details of the Recommendation:

"Brad is an excelent mortgage consultant. When working with Brad it is easy to tell that the clients interests are his main focus. I would use Brad myself and will be referring many clients to him in the future."

Bryan (Realtor)

Dear Brad,

I've written this recommendation of your work to share with other LinkedIn users.

Details of the Recommendation:

"I have had a great experience dealing with Brad. I have been doing business with him for approximately 4 years now and have never had a bad experience. He also helped me in refinancing my own home and it all went through without a hitch."
Blake Fribourg (owner of Brooke Insurance)

Dear Brad,

I've written this recommendation of your work to share with other LinkedIn users.

Details of the Recommendation:

"Awesome Service. . . great rates!"
Thanks, Brian

Brad Lynch and I met a couple of years ago, I have known Brad's father for 13 years through work, Tony Lynch handles and supplies products to the company I work for. Through the years we have had a great relationship and Tony invited me to go on a fishing trip with he and his son, he thought it would be a great time and being that brad and I were the same age and had similar values, that we would all have a great time together. Not long after the great fishing trip, my wife and I decided to refinance our house, my wife had been talking to a patient of hers that owned a mortgage company in the area, I talked to him but was a little uneasy and remembered Brad was in the mortgage business, best thing I have ever remembered. Knowing how great Tony was if Brad was half that, he would be great. To shorten this up as soon as my wife met Brad she said we should use him for our loan, the process was by far the easiest loan I have ever done, the interest rate was around a point lower than the other company. Sense then we have refinanced our rent house and purchased another house with with my in laws and Brad did the loan on it of coarse. Brad and I have become great friends and I tell everyone about him and how he conducts business, when it comes to the mortgage business I believe Brad even surpasses his father with his work ethics and integrity, and those are very large shoes to fill.

Keith
My wife and I were looking for a home in Dallas and then had our plans interrupted only to pick them up 8 months later in Austin.

Not only did Brad pick up exactly where we left off, he remembered my last name without missing a beat. I had been told what a nightmare the entire home buying process was but he worked with us and my agent and the entire transaction was incredibly easy/painless. We got a great rate on the loan we wanted and are really happy in our home. I would recommend him to anyone looking for a mortgage. He's great.

James
As the housing crisis began to show signs of deepening, we realized there would never be a better opportunity for us to own a home. We found Brad through referral from a friend, and we are pleased to have found a man guided by solid principles with an outstanding grasp of the industry and a client centered approach. Brad remained rock-solid through our 3 month ordeal from offer to closing, keeping us informed at every turn. Without his constant attention, excellent communications and willingness to go above and beyond in pursuit of a goal, our dream would have surely gone unfulfilled. The world needs more people with the sound ethics and integrity we found so evident in Brad Lynch.

Yosef & Deborah MurpheyIn the current economy, when loans are hard to find, Brad found financing for me and at a very reasonable price. He worked with me every step and found creative solutions to the hurdles I encountered along the way and never failed to communicate status updates immediately. I will come to Brad the next time I search for financing.
Mark

By Tina
In April of 2007, my hero, my father and mentor was diagnosed with terminal myeloma at the young age of 59. When the pillar of your family is struck down it is truly devastating in so many ways.
I immediately went to Nebraska to see him and assess what I could do to help.
My father owned a masonry contracting business [for over 30 years] and my brother had been groomed to take it over. However, he was not ready and when Dad went down, he couldn't take it emotionally. So the business was in disarray and backlogged.
My husband agreed that I should leave the kids enrolled and come and go as much as possible to help. I spent a few weeks in both states and traveling a great deal.
That time was extremely difficult as my husband was an alcoholic and it caused me a great deal of stress knowing that the children were not being cared for in a manner that I would have done. I was rolling the dice everyday that all would be OK so I could be there to help Mom and Dad.
My desire to help my family was more than my husband could handle so he filed for divorce.
The children struggled so badly with the divorce that we decided to "duplex" the house so that they could adjust with access to us both and I could continue to work in Texas as well as remotely and traveling for Dad.
Living in a home with the ex spouse is ridiculously bad enough but his drinking made it nearly unbearable.
Dad continued to decline and by May of 2008, he required two people to assist him with all daily activity. The children and I moved in with Mom & Dad so we could keep Dad in the home that he and Mom built together until his passing.
Watching the "superman" he was become so helpless physically was heartbreaking for everyone. Literally spending months watching him struggle for life was so sad.
Beginning in August 2008, my ex husband started legal battles to force us to return to Texas dispite my father's condition. So we were dealing remotely with attorneys from Dad's hospital room while trying to run the business without the "magic" which was Dad.
We lost Dad December 4, 2008. It was truly, and continues to be, the most difficult experience I can imagine.
We decided to close the business and return to Texas to stop the legal battles and build a future where I could provide income for Mom and potentially a home she could move to if she needed to.
My children had spent over a year and a half in limbo and emotionally trauma. They had been through so much although willingly to help Grandpa.
I wanted this to be the last move, a positive move and it to be "theirs". They needed a home and a permanent one.
With the last two years of employment being half time in Texas and mostly volunteer in Nebraska, getting me approved for a home loan would take a miracle. Given that I was a homemaker for years prior to the divorce and that the economy was crumbling due to bad home loans, I thought it would be impossible.
My realtor, Betty Magee, told me to go to Brad and he would find a way to get it done.
I couldn't believe it, and the road was very challenging, but Brad found a way to get me approved for the home and my children are happier and healthier now than they have been in 7 years.
We have our home and we have started a new life. One that is positive and healthy and my children will become the strong adults that we will need in the future.
I can't say enough that the worst two years of my life came to an end when Brad got us into our home.

Thank you.

Interest Rates Are Not Looking Good

Hoping for better rates so you can lock down on a rate soon? Patience may bring fruition, or "the early bird gets the worm" and you missed the worm.
Moving.com reported today on their website about todays bond market and how it will affect today's rates and why. They did a good job of speaking in "English" about it, so I'll just quote them here.

"Tuesday's bond market has opened well into negative territory despite early stock losses. The stock markets have also shown a weak opening with the Dow down 130 points and the Nasdaq down 40 points. The bond market is currently down 29/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .500 of a discount point over Friday's rates. The financial markets were closed yesterday in observance of the Martin Luther King holiday.
Today's weakness in bonds is a result of renewed concern about the supply of government debt that will need to be sold to cover the economic stimulus that President Obama has hinted at. The significant new debt that will be sold makes the current outstanding bonds less attractive to investors, leading to lower bond prices and higher mortgage rates this morning."

Hopefully next week will bring better hope.

Your Hopefully Lowest Rate for Your Refinance or Purchase is Positive Today

Yesterday we talked about some economic reports that may have barring on today's rates and maybe even more Monday. The December Industrial Report was twice as bad as expected, www.bloomberg.com reported. It also reported that auto output fell to the lowest in more than a century.
The Consumer Price Index was another report that came out, and it proved to meet right about even with expectations, so that won't help rates.
Defining Consumer Price Index- defined by Department of Labor Statistics as (CPI) program produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services

Lets keep our fingers crossed and hope that we see a mid day change in rates for the better. The pricing for 30 and 15 year fixed loans barely edged out yesterday's pricing and may not have been enough to shave off today's rates by .125%, but a bettering again today or Monday by any amount should deliver a change by .125% or at best .25% for prospective refinancers and buyers.

How to find the best interest rate for your refinance watching the market?

At this point, making judgment to forecast what the market will deliver in reference to the best time to lock your interest rate has been a coin flip. This week and last week haven't necessarily followed the rules of the "game", so to speak. As economic reports continue to come out in the refinance seekers favor, the Stocks have taken their hits, but the bonds haven't executed to the extent that we needed them to for rates to drop.

On the other hand, rates have held tight and stayed flat overall in the past week and we haven't lost much ground. Getting that super low sub 5% rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range isn't out of the question. The experts at www.Moving.com are still releasing the knowledge about upcoming economic reports that can give us all hope that rates may still lower. Here is the commentary from Moving.com that may service our needs for lower rates.

Three economic reports, and we hope they all work in our favor. Moving.com said, "There are three relevant reports on the agenda for tomorrow. The first is December's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is also one of the most important monthly reports that we see since it measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy...Weaker than expected readings should lead to bond improvements and lower mortgage rates tomorrow since this is the most important of the three." This could mean that tomorrow rates open up nicely for us if the reports work in our favor, or at least by the end of the day tomorrow.

"December's Industrial Production report is the second report to be posted tomorrow. It will be released at 9:15 AM ET and measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities." When the stock market sees the reports at 9:15am, that should be enough time to rally the selling of stocks and buying of bonds in time to give the banks what they need to confidently make their decisions on our hopeful lower rates...assuming the reports work in that direction.

"The final report of the week is January's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates." This is the final report for tomorrow and cross your fingers.

If all reports do what we want them to, and rates fall, I'll Blog about it and let you know what the outcome is. If there is not good news, I'll say now, have a great weekend and better luck next week.

Employment Reports Hoping to Drop Mortgage Rates

What are the hopes for the short term in interest rates for your hopes in a more successful refinance?
In a daily report yesterday, Moving.com said, "Current forecasts call for a 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate, pushing it to 7.0%. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in payrolls in the neighborhood of 500,000 with earnings rising 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve tomorrow. However, stronger than expected readings will likely push mortgage rates higher." This would mean that if the reports showed a worse than expected figure, we would see rates possibly fall even lower for the hopes of that next best rate in your refinance or purchase.

How did the employment report turn out today?CNBC report that the U.S. private-sector employers shed 693,000 jobs in December, a private employment service said Wednesday in a report that was far worse than expected and pointed to more ugly news from the government's jobs data due later this week. The drop, much bigger than the revised 476,000 private sector jobs lost in November, is consistent with about a 670,000 fall in December non-farm payrolls, said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which jointly develops the private sector employment report with ADP Employer Services. After the ADP report, U.S. Treasury bonds regained some lost ground, the dollar extended its losses against the euro and the yen and U.S. stock futures slid.

What were the results for mortgage rates today or what is to hope for?
Rates came out this morning pretty much unchanged, because typically the changes take half a day or better to have their affect. So we'll either see the affect as a mid day pricing change today, or hopefully Monday.