Rates Fall 6 Straight Weeks, and Stay Under 5% for 2 Weeks Straight

Rates Remain Under 5% for 2nd Week In a Row (see last paragraph for mention of possible extension of Tax Credit again!)

"The possibility of securing a mortgage rate below 5% has greatly improved in recent weeks, in a positive sign for would-be home buyers", said CNNMoney.com. All facts show, from Freddie Mac's report to Bankrate.com, rates have dropped.

After 6 straight weeks of rates dropping, we now wonder if forecasts for higher rates may be off on their expected timing. Maybe rates start their climb in late 2010 and we see the higher 6% rates in 2011...Warren Buffet said yesterday that he expected recovery in the housing market to be full on in 2010, so who do we believe?

Freddie Mac's (FRE, Fortune 500) weekly report said the 30-year rate slipped to 4.87% for the week ended Thursday, the lowest since May. According to the mortgage backer, last week's rates stood at 4.94%. On the other hand, Mortgage tracker Bankrate.com said the average 30-year fixed loan slipped to 5.22% from 5.25% the previous week. The 15-year fixed rate also fell, Bankrate said, to 4.6% from 4.64% the week before. Keep in mind, Bankrate.com always posts higher rates, I believe, because their main audience is Loan Officers and lenders of their competition because they do such a good job of posting cause in the daily fluctuation of mortgage rates as it pertains to stock and bond works daily. So, Freddie is more accurate as a whole.

Why are mortgage rates still dipping below 5%? Bankrate.com said that it's because of the poor employment reports. Poor stability in the growth, or at least having a lesser amount of unemployment from month to month, is a sign that economic rebound is not coming along as fast as we hoped. Therefore, investors in the stock and bond world are nervous, and when they are nervous, they pull money from risky stock and put it into bonds. When bonds are seeing more attention from investors than stock, in ratio terms, it's good for our mortgage rates. Also reported to cause this change in rates, CNNMoney said, "Now the central bank has less than $15 billion left to spend on its buyback program, which led some investors to worry that yields would soar again. So far, that's not the case."
On Wednesday, reports said Democratic congressional leaders were working to extend a $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers past the Nov. 30 expiration date and could even make it available to current homeowners who buy a new house...CNNMoney reported.

So we have a positive forecast for the bailout money that was used to bailout the mortgage industry. The TARP that is used to help create jobs and so forth is foreseen to be a loss. We have a decision to make lets say. We are going to turn a profit in the end from it. As a business owner say with a large bit of debt, do you A) Take the profit and pay down your debit and hope that business continues to produce so you can continue, or B) take your profit and immediately apply it to a part of your business that isn't producing in hopes to get the entire "engine" efficiently making money? If you put the money into a part of the company that is not producing and it continues to not produce, you lose that money right?
The Democrats support plan B above and the republicans support plan A. There is a chance that both options turn out positive, but I guess the argument is, which one will work more...I'm assuming the economy turns around that is.

Word on Extending Tax Credit for 2010

Have you been wondering, will the First Time Buyer Tax Credit stimulus package really go away as the timeline by law defines, or will they extend it?
Without disclosing the name of the person who forwarded the letter to me, and who was addressed on the letter, I did see the official letter from Washington that was written on October 5, 2009 that talked about this. My understanding of the letter lead me to believe that it would be possible that as the current tax advantage opportunity expires, there is possibility that a new one would be set forth including not just First Time Buyers. The new one MIGHT increase the amount one might get for the tax credit, and it would include anyone buying a primary residence rather than just the first time buyer.
Keep your fingers crossed!

Super Low Rates Again, Frisco! Employment-Bad, Earnings-Good

We have seen consecutive days all week long of a better mortgage rate market. Rates are now at rock bottom again, and I think maybe for the last time before we see the recovery of our economy begin to ramp up. Ted Jones, the Chief Economist of Stewart Title North Texas, believes that the recovery will also bring higher rates. This means that because signs show that we are closer now than ever in the recent years to a recovery, we are also closer to interest rates going up...unless Bernanke has something super up his sleeve.

The unemployment report by the Labor Department reported that we still saw 216,000 jobs lost last month, so we are still seeing a large number of people losing jobs, but we saw less job losses than The Labor Department expected...so that is better than we hoped, therefore moving in the right direction.

Earnings on the other hand are doing better. There was a .3% increase in earnings...meaning the people in America are losing jobs, but the ones keeping there jobs are seeing an overall increase in their pay.

Take note on this thought. As we start the recovery in America, and interest rates for mortgages start going up, we'll have a larger qualifying number of possible home buyers, but since rates will be higher, the monthly costs for the homes will be higher. My point: The principle and interest payment for a $200,000 loan today at 4.875% is $1,058.97. Rates are expected to go as high as 7.5% in the next two years. These means that same home with the $200,000 loan at 7.5% would have a payment of $1,398.76...$339.79 more a month. So the home that you want and can afford today, may not be the home you can afford to buy in two years.

If you are looking to move in the next couple years, it may be time to buy now before you can't afford it in the years to come. If you would like a better explanation of how waiting may price you out of the market, go to Ted's Blog and read what he says.

2009 Frisco Economic Forecast by Stewart Title North Texas

How is the Frisco buyer's market effected by the economy and how might home sales finish out in 2009 in relation to the first half of the year? Will 2010 be a better year for the home buying and mortgage markets than 2009?

2009 Stewart Title Economic Forecast

Discussion at Park Cities Club
with Ted C. Jones, PhD, Senior VP — Chief Economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Company

Please Join Ted C. Jones, PhD for this discussion

Ted is the Director of Investor Relations for Stewart Information Services Corporation and also Senior Vice President-Chief Economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Company...he addresses the information needs of stockholders, conducts on-going research and supports economic and financial analysis for the company and its customers. An accomplished speaker, he typically gives more than 150 presentations on real estate and the economic outlook each year.

Wednesday, September 2ND
3:00pm – 5:00pm
Park Cities Club
5956 Sherry Lane – Top Floor
view map
Hosted by:
The Mavis Kilgore Team
Stewart Title North Dallas Office
Space is Limited So Please Reply Early!
RSVP to teresa.lynch@stewart.com

Frisco Home Sales and Average Prices...Expectations for Future Foreclosures

Home Sales up
Given what our market has been through, lets think with our common sense and jump to some apparent obvious conclusions about what we would expect. With the enormous number of foreclosures, and short sales that have a negative affect on house prices, and the fact that so many buyers were eliminated from the buying game when mortgage qualification guidelines tightened, we know why and where the drop in home prices on average came from. Right? That all seems like commons sense. Now that value of all homes in America just about are less than they were a year or more ago, anyone buying those homes today would be buying them at a lower amount then before...more common sense. So when we here reports that the number of homes sold in April or May this year is a little from last year, but the average price per home is less, we shouldn't be pessimistic and say, "who cares that the number of homes sold increased cause prices are down". That is not a fair statement because the homes sold today have to be less on average and the number of homes sold increasing is the best first sign we can expect. Right?
CNN reported, "Existing home sales rose 2.9% while the median sales price fell 15.4% to $170,200".

Average Sale price down
Lets not worry so much about the average sale price of homes just yet. America saw too many job losses and pay cuts for us to have a bustling appreciation on sales prices just yet. Let Americans get some placebo going in the right direction and as we start making an extra dollar, we'll get right back on into our good ole American ways...spend and leverage "babe"! Once that happens, then we can focus on home prices. Keep this note on your fridge though, over correction is in the forecast for 2010 and mortgage rates are expected to be in the high 7% range at best...they might have started that assent last week by the way the volatile market is playing out. We had two interest rate "worsenings" just today.

The foreclosure numbers haven't stopped, and there are more to be expected.
Forbes reported that in March the unemployment rate went to 8.5%, the highest in 25 years. Economic forecasters figure that we'll see a continued problem in foreclosures at least through this summer and fall.

January Retail Sales Data may not help rates today...

After a couple days of low rates, we in the mortgage "circle" were hoping for the January Retail Sales Data report to come back negative...again, it's not good for the economy for negative reports, but for interest rates it might have helped. The expectations were a fall of .3% and it increased by 1%. Right off, that might lead us to believe that we would definitely see an increase in rates today. On the other hand, there was quite a bit of momentum in a bettering market towards the end of the day yesterday, and we have hope at the most, that rates at least stalemate today and don't go up.

The Worry Free Mortgage

Is there a Home Loan similar to the one Hyundai has for their cars where when you get fired, you have a worry free option?The Worry Free Home Loan was invented and Service First Mortgage is offering it to insure that a home buyer doesn't lose his home if they lose their job.

This is a market where even disciplined and responsible home owners have the risk of Bankruptcy or foreclosure.
The loan plan can provide you the security you need when deciding to buy a house in an economy that isn't strong enough to trust. This Worry Free Loan works like an insurance policy if you were to loose your job in the first two years of ownership. If you were to lose your job, the Worry Free Loan will pay your mortgage payment, Principle AND Interest, for you. Beyond the first two years, there is a free extended plan that kicks in to support you in hardship as well.

Alrighty, what is the cost for this "so called Worry Free Loan"? Right? You were thinking that? (:
It is a program that can go side by side with your regular loan for a price ranging from $300-$600 at closing that the seller or Custom Home Builder can pay for you. Call Brad Lynch if you are interested further in this loan. !!!469-450-BRAD!!!

Should I pay points/origination...CONT'D/Part II

Should I pay points/origination?
If you haven't read part I of this Blog, please click on this hyper link...Part I or scroll to the Blog title previous to this one below.
...YES!!! Pay points.
First off, somewhere in the time continuum's past, the word "point" became a trigger word that people hear and focus in on. The way I see it, it's a block for understanding how to shop or understand how to effectively shop your loan. I can tell you this, as a long time loan officer, when I hear a client ask about "points" or mention that their father, brother, uncle, or spouse asked them to ask about "points", I right now know there is a possibility I will have a hard time explaining mortgage and explain how to structure a loan for this person because they are "cursed" with the "point block".
That being said, if it makes since, pay points! Lots and lots and lots of points! OK, I'm exaggerating...but yes, pay points when it makes since. The interest rate that families are getting today, at this point in time, they will unlikely be able to refinance into a lower rate that makes since for the duration of that loan's life. So, there is no fear that they pay up front money to get the best rate and then rates drop months or a year later and now they refinance again and double the cost that they are trying to make up for the savings of the refinance.
There is a less obvious reason to pay points now, and many/most loan consultants won't "go there" with their client, lenders, investors, and banks are being really greedy with their incentives that pay the commissions and overhead for their loan officers. (I also don't "go there" with many clients because some clients are not interested in how or why, they are only interested in, "what's in it for me". I try to profile clients that care about me as a business relationship, not a slave that happens to have the key to the door that they have to get through to get a loan.) It used to be easy to go to a client and say, "George, I can offer you 5.5% with no origination/points, or I can offer you 5.375% with you paying .5% in origination/points, or 5.25% with you paying a full 1% origination/point." Reason being, the lending establishments would pay much larger incentives to loan officers that would offer .125% above the rock bottom lowest rate and then every .125% increase to the next and so forth as the rate that is offered moves up. Well now, we loan consultants would have to literally move an interest rate that we offer where the borrower has to pay 1% origination up .5% or .875% to be compensated enough to waive the origination/point...that blows the deal for a refinance because the payment increases to much.
What does that mean to me, the refinancing borrower or home buyer?That means that you need to ask your mortgage consultant for the lowest rate possible and ask him what kind of origination and discount must be paid for that rate. If you want your lender to waive origination/discounts/points, you are setting yourself up for trouble in this market.
Good luck! Go and buy a home or refinance to help your country through this recession.

Today's Expectations of Interest Rate and Fed's Next Move

First, what are the expectations of the Fed's next move on Prime Rate?
Today around 1:15, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is meeting and the results are to help estimate their next position on adjusting the Prime Rate. Chances are, there won't be much to expect and the disclosure of information won't REALLY say much to make heads or tails of a right hike.

Moving.com said today, "Tomorrow morning brings us the release of December's Durable Goods Orders. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years. The data often is quite volatile from month to month, but is currently expected to show a decline in orders of 2.0%. A larger than expected drop would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates." If you decide to follow this, you could Google the terms "December Durable Goods" and see if the decline is more than 2.0%. If it is, that could be could news for rates. If it's not, it should affect rates for the worse by much if at all unless it is much better than expected.

What to expect in mortgage interest rates by end of this week in relation to the stocks and bonds and economic reports...Lastly this week, the December New Home Sales Report is to be out, but it should have a major affect on rates either. On the other hand, if it IS worse than expected, that would couple with the rest of this weeks reports and hopefully more next week to continue building momentum for a bettering mortgage rate market.

Are you trying to decide to lock your loan or not?All signs right now would say to float, or hold off on locking and see what the end of the week brings. If you are finding a benefit in a refinance right now, my advice is to lock Friday or Monday assuming rates are worsened too badly by then and therefore cultivate your gains.

Your Hopefully Lowest Rate for Your Refinance or Purchase is Positive Today

Yesterday we talked about some economic reports that may have barring on today's rates and maybe even more Monday. The December Industrial Report was twice as bad as expected, www.bloomberg.com reported. It also reported that auto output fell to the lowest in more than a century.
The Consumer Price Index was another report that came out, and it proved to meet right about even with expectations, so that won't help rates.
Defining Consumer Price Index- defined by Department of Labor Statistics as (CPI) program produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services

Lets keep our fingers crossed and hope that we see a mid day change in rates for the better. The pricing for 30 and 15 year fixed loans barely edged out yesterday's pricing and may not have been enough to shave off today's rates by .125%, but a bettering again today or Monday by any amount should deliver a change by .125% or at best .25% for prospective refinancers and buyers.

How to find the best interest rate for your refinance watching the market?

At this point, making judgment to forecast what the market will deliver in reference to the best time to lock your interest rate has been a coin flip. This week and last week haven't necessarily followed the rules of the "game", so to speak. As economic reports continue to come out in the refinance seekers favor, the Stocks have taken their hits, but the bonds haven't executed to the extent that we needed them to for rates to drop.

On the other hand, rates have held tight and stayed flat overall in the past week and we haven't lost much ground. Getting that super low sub 5% rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range isn't out of the question. The experts at www.Moving.com are still releasing the knowledge about upcoming economic reports that can give us all hope that rates may still lower. Here is the commentary from Moving.com that may service our needs for lower rates.

Three economic reports, and we hope they all work in our favor. Moving.com said, "There are three relevant reports on the agenda for tomorrow. The first is December's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is also one of the most important monthly reports that we see since it measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy...Weaker than expected readings should lead to bond improvements and lower mortgage rates tomorrow since this is the most important of the three." This could mean that tomorrow rates open up nicely for us if the reports work in our favor, or at least by the end of the day tomorrow.

"December's Industrial Production report is the second report to be posted tomorrow. It will be released at 9:15 AM ET and measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities." When the stock market sees the reports at 9:15am, that should be enough time to rally the selling of stocks and buying of bonds in time to give the banks what they need to confidently make their decisions on our hopeful lower rates...assuming the reports work in that direction.

"The final report of the week is January's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates." This is the final report for tomorrow and cross your fingers.

If all reports do what we want them to, and rates fall, I'll Blog about it and let you know what the outcome is. If there is not good news, I'll say now, have a great weekend and better luck next week.

Employment Reports Hoping to Drop Mortgage Rates

What are the hopes for the short term in interest rates for your hopes in a more successful refinance?
In a daily report yesterday, Moving.com said, "Current forecasts call for a 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate, pushing it to 7.0%. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in payrolls in the neighborhood of 500,000 with earnings rising 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve tomorrow. However, stronger than expected readings will likely push mortgage rates higher." This would mean that if the reports showed a worse than expected figure, we would see rates possibly fall even lower for the hopes of that next best rate in your refinance or purchase.

How did the employment report turn out today?CNBC report that the U.S. private-sector employers shed 693,000 jobs in December, a private employment service said Wednesday in a report that was far worse than expected and pointed to more ugly news from the government's jobs data due later this week. The drop, much bigger than the revised 476,000 private sector jobs lost in November, is consistent with about a 670,000 fall in December non-farm payrolls, said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which jointly develops the private sector employment report with ADP Employer Services. After the ADP report, U.S. Treasury bonds regained some lost ground, the dollar extended its losses against the euro and the yen and U.S. stock futures slid.

What were the results for mortgage rates today or what is to hope for?
Rates came out this morning pretty much unchanged, because typically the changes take half a day or better to have their affect. So we'll either see the affect as a mid day pricing change today, or hopefully Monday.

Unbelievably Super Low Rates Today, but What About The Rest of the Week

Ultimately, yesterdays economic news was GREAT for today's rates, but there was some major volatile "others" that gave us a mid day worsening. In the end, we saw better rates today still, thanks to Bond gains like I haven't seen in a long time.
This morning the bond market was currently up 45/32, and usually we see it up on average of around 15/32 or so, so you can imagine how well it started today.
Tomorrow morning brings us the release of weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department.
Moving.com, my favorite mortgage rate commentary site said the following. This data is not usually of much importance to the markets because it tracks only a week's worth of new claims. However, the second report of the day is only moderately important so if this data varies greatly from forecasts it could influence bonds enough to affect mortgage pricing. It is expected to show that 55 the week's last piece of economic news will be posted tomorrow morning with the release of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for the month of November. This 10:00 AM release attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a sizable decline in activity, meaning that it predicts slower economic activity over the next several months. This probably will not have much of an impact on bond prices or affect mortgage rates unless it exceeds current forecasts of a 0.5% decline from October's reading. If it shows a larger decline, the bond market may move slightly higher, improving mortgage rates slightly.
8,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week.
In the end, this just means that they don't expect rates to sit this low for long, but there may be economic news in the coming weeks that return it to this rate low again soon.
My advice on your lock decision, DON'T BE GREEDY. Lock your loan now.

What Are Mortgage Rates Going to do In the Short Term

In a report yesterday, mortgage guru at Mortgagerate.com wrote the following.
The recent bond rally has driven bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower, however, I am concerned that we may see an increase in rates before they fall much further. The rally creates a situation where bond traders may sell holdings to capture profits from it. If there is a concern in the market whether bonds can improve much more, that move may happen sooner than later and can lead to a spike in mortgage rates. Therefore, I strongly recommend that you maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate because rate usually move higher much quicker than they improve.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.